No 'blue wave' but US election results to challenge seafood industry
No 'blue wave' but US election results to challenge seafood industry
By Jason Huffman
If you had any question about how the US election might most quickly affect the US seafood industry, look no further than the promises made by president-elect Joe Biden on his campaign website.
On “day one,” the Democratic challenger to president Donald Trump and former vice president, who — along with his running mate Kamala Harris — has been declared the winner by multiple news networks, has pledged to take 11 “executive actions” in relation to climate change. One of those includes “protecting biodiversity, slowing extinction rates and helping leverage natural climate solutions by conserving 30% of America’s lands and waters by 2030.”
It’s a change that likely means some strict limits on commercial fishing and is also included In the Ocean-Based Climate Solutions Act (HR 8632), legislation introduced in October by representative Raul Grijalva, an Arizona Democrat and chairman of the US House of Representatives; Natural Resources Committee, as reported by Undercurrent News.
A hearing has been scheduled for Nov. 17 on the bill, sources told Undercurrent, though it is significantly challenged. All 28 of the bill’s co-sponsors are Democrats and it does not yet have a Senate companion with a little more than two months remaining in the lame-duck portion of the 116th Congress. It no doubt will have to be re-introduced in the 117th Congress, where the 2020 election has likely left the Senate with either a Republican majority or with very thin control by the Democrats.
But Biden doesn’t need Congress to make 30 by 30 happen anyway. He can simply use an executive order in the same way that president Barack Obama did in 2016 to declare one area off the coast of Massachusetts in the Atlantic Ocean as the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument and another in the Pacific, near Hawaii, as the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument.
Trump, in 2020, then used another executive order to reverse part of Obama’s decree to allow commercial fishing in the Seamounts area.
Leigh Habegger, executive director of the Seafood Harvesters of America, is among a number of stakeholders who would prefer a legislative approach to such matters and hopes the next administration, at a minimum, would involve the commercial fishing industry.
“I hate to be a broken record on this but we saw what happened when industry got shut out on the decision to establish the Seamounts [national monument] up in New England, and how an administration of the opposite party then came in and just undid those protections,” she told Undercurrent in a recent interview. “If they don’t involve industry in the process, we’re not going to see durable protection. It’s just going to be the pendulum swinging back and forth and back and forth.”
Also worth noting on Biden’s web-posted, day-one, climate change to-do list that’s of consequence to commercial fishermen: “doubling offshore wind by 2030.”
The Biden plan mentions it in conjunction with an effort to ban new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters and establishing targeted programs to “enhance reforestation and develop renewables on federal lands and waters.”
The commercial fishing industry on the New England coast of the US, in particular, has long been in a battle against efforts to build wind farms. In particular, harvesters remain concerned about their ability to navigate the waters around turbines and the potential impact on local squid and other fish.
The Grijalva bill would prohibit the leasing of all areas of the outer continental shelf for oil and gas drilling while directing the US interior secretary to “seek to permit not less than 12.5 gigawatts of offshore wind energy production on the OCS by Jan. 1, 2025.” The goal would double to 25GW by Jan. 1, 2030.
The current state of play
The so-called “blue wave” didn’t happen, or at least not in the way many pundits thought. While It remains possible that Democrats could come out of the election with control of the White House, House of Representatives and Senate, Republicans scored multiple victories.
As noted earlier, Biden appears the winner of the 2020 presidential election. He had 77.3 million ballots and 279 electoral votes to Trump’s 72.2m ballots and 214 electoral votes, according to the latest tallies on Tuesday morning by most US television networks and newspapers. At press time, two of the three US states that were still too close to call were leaning in Biden’s favor.
Of course, the incumbent president has refused to concede and instead has threatened legal challenges in multiple states with close tallies.
Following the results declared on Wednesday morning, Democrats were assured control of at least 218 House seats, the amount needed to maintain a majority, though Republicans have gained as many as six seats, guaranteeing them 203, and look to pick up a few more when other races are declared. They’ll be in a position to possibly regain the majority in 2022.
Democrats had hoped to use the 2020 election to regain control of the Senate and still could, but it’s going to be difficult.
With Republican incumbent Thom Tillis declared a winner in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday evening and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan declared a “projected winner” on Wednesday morning by CNN, the GOP looks to control 50 of the upper chamber’s 100 seats in the 117th Congress, while the Democrats hold 48.
The only remaining contests are in Georgia where the late wave of Democratic votes has forced a runoff for both of that state’s Republican incumbents, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. Should the Democrats prevail and create a 50-50 seat tie in the Senate, that would give vice president-elect Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote in choosing a Senate majority leader, and she can be expected to select New York Democrat Chuck Schumer over Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell.
The Georgia contests are of such national consequence that one political strategist has been quoted as predicting more than $500m in additional campaign contributions will be raised.
Should either of the Republican incumbents in the Peach State prevail, giving the GOP 51-49 or 52-48 control ratio in the Senate, it’s highly unlikely any Democrat-introduced legislation from the House makes its way to the upper chamber floor. And even if the Democrats were to win both of the remaining races, such a slim majority means legislation containing major changes would have a hard time surviving as well.
[T]ime to ‘get back to a sensible national trade policy’
Though many seafood industry professionals were pulling for Biden to win the White House, the seafood industry’s money was predominantly working for Trump, Undercurrent found when it earlier reviewed Federal Election Commission (FEC) records.
Undercurrent tracked about $125,000 in contributions by Oct. 14 to the Trump campaign by individuals who identified themselves as working for seafood companies but found only $23,000 contributed by the industry to the Biden campaign.
A panel of seafood industry experts noted several advantages of keeping Trump in the White House during a recent webinar panel hosted by Undercurrent, including his general attitude against restrictive regulations and his recent push for aquaculture. A Biden administration, they feared, could be heavily influenced by conservation groups.
A few NGO representatives are identified among the 20 names attached to the Biden transition team focused on the Department of Commerce, including Karen Hyun of the National Audubon Society and Karen de Wit of the Pew Charitable Trusts, Undercurrent confirmed Tuesday night. No commercial fishing or seafood industry representatives are apparent.
The group also includes Kathryn Sullivan, a former chief science officer and Obama’s choice to head up the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from 2014 through 2016. Industry sources said Sullivan, also a former astronaut, involved industry in her decision at NOAA.
One significant positive that a Biden administration could bring the seafood industry, however, is a change in trade policy, several sources suggested. The Trump administration’s trade war has proven costly to the industry, resulting in no less than $422.5m in tariffs on seafood imported from China between Sept. 2018 and June 2020, based on data provided to Undercurrent by NOAA.
And that doesn’t take into account the significant drop in US imports of Chinese seafood resulting from the tariffs. The US imported some 190,568 metric tons of Chinese seafood in the first half of 2020, garnering $771.6m in value. For comparison purposes, that was 3% less than 196,347t in volume and 17% less than the $925.2m in value imported in the first six months of 2019, and it was 27% less than the 259,367t in volume and 39% less than the $1.3bn in value imported during the first six months of 2018, before the trade war started.
Nor does it account for the loss of US seafood sales due to high Chinese tariffs.
The US sent China 164,946t of seafood worth $385.8m in the first six months of 2020, 1% more than the 162,538t in volume and 7% less than the $414.0m in value sent during the first six months of 2019. However, the volume of US seafood sent China during the first six months of 2020 was 17% less than the 199,003t in volume and 36% less than the $602.1m in value sent to China by the US in the first six months of 2018, before the trade war.
Some industry experts Undercurrent interviewed have suggested Biden would have a hard time striking a new trade deal with China, given the way Trump attacked him during the campaign and suggested the former vice president would be too friendly with the US’ largest competitor in trade. However, others believe he will make a pivot for the good of the country.
“All of Biden’s talk around trade up to this point was for the campaign,” one source told Undercurrent this week. “Now that that’s over, let’s get back to a sensible national trade policy. He’s going to want to govern effectively, using a multilateral approach.”
Seafood industry goes 12 for 12 on favorite candidates
Entering Tuesday, Sullivan led independent challenger Al Gross, a commercial salmon fisherman and orthopedic surgeon, by a 30% margin with about 156,000 ballots (45%) still out there, many of which were expected to favor Gross. However, after working until around midnight on Tuesday to count 70,000 of the missing votes, Sullivan still led by a 57% to 37% margin.
Following Tuesday’s results, the Gross campaign sent out a statement saying the race remains too close to call.
Assuming Sullivan has won his race in Alaska, as CNN suggests, it would mean the US seafood industry has returned all 13 of the lawmakers it most supported during the 2019-2020 campaign cycle, based on Undercurrent’s review of FEC filings. That includes Republican senator Lisa Murkowski, who received $10,500 in contributions from the seafood industry despite not being up for reelection until 2022.
Sullivan, whose campaign garnered $87,800 in contributions from the seafood industry prior to Oct. 14, including $23,600 from the seafood industry’s 11 political action committees (PACs), was the industry’s most supported. Overall, Sullivan’s campaign had raised $7.4m in funds, less than half of the $16.6m raised by Gross’s campaign.
Another Alaska champion of the seafood industry expected to retain his post is Republican representative Don Young. Following the vote update on Tuesday, he was beating his Democratic party-backed independent challenger Alyse Galvin by 16%, down from the earlier 26% lead on Wednesday morning.
Young is the longest-service member of the House, having first taken office in 1973, and is considered one of the primary drafters of the Magnuson-Stevens Act (MSA) of 1976, the foundation of all modern US commercial fishing regulations. He has attempted several times in recent congressional sessions to advance a reauthorization of the bill with changes sought by the commercial fishing industry.
Representative Jared Huffman, a Democrat and chairman of the Natural Resources oceans subcommittee, has taken over MSA reauthorization efforts and handily won his race in California’s 2nd district over Republican challenger Dal Mensing by a 78% to 22% margin, based on 76% of the votes in so far.
The seafood industry’s second-most supported lawmaker was Jeff Van Drew, a representative who famously switched parties to become a Republican late in 2019. He garnered 52% of the vote in New Jersey’s 2nd district to hi competitor, Amy Kennedy’s 46%.
The New Jersey representative did not receive any support from the seafood industry PACs but was the beneficiary of at least $30,000 in combined donations from individuals within the sector, including several large contributions from Jeff and Wayne Reichle at Lund’s Fisheries, Barry Cohen, chairmen of the board at Atlantic Capes, and also Daniel LeVecchia, the president at LaMonica Foods.
In an email to Undercurrent, Jeff Reichle described Van Drew as “one of the most honest, constituent-oriented congressmen I have ever worked with” and noted how he voted for him when he was a Democrat.
He further bolstered his support among several New Jersey seafood company executives when he called for a hearing in September to explore the challenges that could be created by wind turbines on the Atlantic Coast. A few months earlier he co-sponsored a bill with Alaska representative Don Young to reauthorize the MSA.
One incumbent candidate who was supported by the seafood industry but considered a darkhorse to keep her job was Maine senator Susan Collins. Despite her Democratic opponent Sara Gideon’s campaign raising as much as $68.1m, more than three times the $22.2m raised by Collins, the incumbent took 51% of the vote in Maine to Gideon’s 43%.
Ben Martens, executive director of the Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association, said Tuesday that the Collins win and also a victory by Democratic New Hampshire senator Jeanne Shaheen were two of the most important for the seafood industry in New England.
“They are fantastic supporters of the seafood industry and highly valuable to have back,” he said.
Shaheen, who received campaign $7,500 in contributions from the industry’s 11 PACs, easily beat her Republican challenger Corky Messner by a 57% to 41% margin.
Offshore aquaculture needs a new Democratic champion
However, the seafood industry did experience at least one critical loss.
Democratic representative Collin Peterson, a major champion of aquaculture in the US, lost his bid to retain his seat in Minnesota’s 7th district, falling by a 53% to 40% margin to Republican challenger Michelle Fischbach.
Peterson introduced the Advancing the Quality and Understanding of American Aquaculture (AQUAA) Act (HR 6191) in the House in March, a bill that would help the US develop an offshore aquaculture industry. As a result, assuming the bill doesn’t get passed during the lame-duck session, it will need a new Democratic champion in the lower chamber to have a chance in the 117th session.
Peterson had plenty of reasons to support further growth of the aquaculture industry, too. His home state is a major producer of soybeans, a common ingredeient in aquaculture feed. Also, he held the prominent position of House Agriculture Committee chairman and his departure opens up the important post for a potentially more progressive lawmaker, Politico advises.
Democratic representatives Jim Costa of California, David Scott of Georgia, and Marcia Fudge of Ohio, are all considered to be possibly next in line due to their seniority.
That said, the legislation does have other champions who won their races, including Mississippi Republican representative Steven Palazzo, who ran uncontested in 2020.
Senators Roger Wiker, also a Mississippi Republican, Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, and Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat, all of whom backed the Senate version of the bill (S 4723) introduced in September, were not up for reelection in 2020, so they also will be back.
Peterson, 76, had served in the House for 30 years and was considered a “blue dog” Democrat, meaning more fiscally conservative, but has seen his district lean more and more to the right in recent years. Regardless, Stronger America Through Seafood (SATS), a coalition of more than 20 US and Canadian companies working for the past few years to advance the AQUAA Act, is staying positive.
“Both Republicans and Democrats understand the importance of increasing sustainable US seafood production and, regardless of election outcomes, the US seafood community has reason to be hopeful,” said SATS campaign director Margaret Henderson in an email sent to Undercurrent.
“There is strong bipartisan support in both the House and Senate for offshore aquaculture legislation which will bring economic recovery and new jobs across the seafood supply chain.”
Henderson also noted Trump’s “Executive Order on Seafood Competitiveness,” which she said is “widely supported by both American stakeholders and career staff at the agencies of jurisdiction, including [the US Department of Agriculture], the Department of Commerce and NOAA.
“The unified effort will boost the US economy, public health and ocean ecosystems through seafood production, both wild and farm-raised, and will likely continue irrespective of who occupies the oval office,” she said.
Contact the author jason.huffman@undercurrentnews.com.