UCN panel: US election 'blue wave' could bring seafood industry mixed blessings

UCN panel: US election ‘blue wave’ could bring seafood industry mixed blessings

Screenshot from UCN’s webinar.

By Jason Huffman

A so-called "blue wave" in the 2020 US election – meaning a win by challenger Joe Biden in the presidential race and also enough victories by Democrats to retake the Senate -- could help the seafood industry by speeding the handling of coronavirus relief measures.

It could also result in tighter commercial fishing restrictions, threaten the US aquaculture industry with a loss of momentum and not likely lead to an immediate resolution to US-China trade war-related troubles.

Those were among the opinions offered by a panel of five seafood industry experts convened Thursday for a webinar by Undercurrent News. On Friday morning, with just 11 days to go before the US’ election day (Nov. 3), more than 49 million votes already had been case, according to the US Election Project. That’s way ahead of the pace set in 2016 when about 138m votes were collected total, accounting for roughly 56% to 58% of the eligible voting population.

The political news service Politico reported on Friday that Democrats have been turning out in much larger numbers in six battleground states, including Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points) and Wisconsin (22 points), based on an analysis from Hawkfish, an organization funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a foe of incumbent Donald Trump.

Also, Democrats have dominated in Florida, casting 10% more pre-election day ballots, based on data collected by the crucial swing state.

Of course, more Republicans are expected to vote in person on Nov. 3 and move the needle more toward the red or right, Politico is careful to note

And 2020 is more than just a presidential race. Republicans maintain a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but of the 35 Senate races now in play, 23 involve incumbent Republicans trying to defend their seats. The Cook Political Report considers seven of those races a tossup with two leaning Democrat.

One party in control might speed relief

So, yes, after this election, the seafood industry could be looking at a complete tide change, with Democrats controlling the White House, Senate and House of Representatives.'

Such a development could provide at least one positive for the seafood industry, suggested Todd Clark, a partner at Endeavor Seafood, a Newport, Rhode Island-based wholesaler and importer, a former chairman at the National Fisheries Institute. It could mean the faster delivery of coronavirus-related relief measures, as unifying both chambers and the administration under one party likely means less disagreement, he said in Thursday’s webinar.

"I do think you could probably get more sympathy from the Biden [VP candidate Kamala] Harris administration," he said. "I do think that that there is some sympathy on the politics … In terms of  spending more, I think that the Republican side is increasingly resistant to those kinds of things.”

Talks between Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic speaker of the House, and the Trump White House over another coronavirus relief measure have been at an impasse for months, and Pelosi said Tuesday that it will likely be after the election that any deal is struck. The agreement has met resistance in the GOP-controlled Senate, where some Republicans have blanched at a multi-trillion dollar price tag, Politico reports. There are differences over key policy issues, such as a virus testing plan, aid to state and local governments and tax cuts for low- and middle-income families, too. "We obviously want to have a deal by Nov. 3," Pelosi is quoted as saying. "That really is going to be up to whether the president can convince Mitch McConnell to do so."

However, regardless of which party winds up running the White House and Senate, Clark said he remains concerned that seafood wholesalers might continue to be left out of future stimulus legislation.

"There's been a lot of action in terms of getting funding to restaurants," he said. "There's been a lot of action in terms of getting funding to individuals. But, in the supply chain, there's been less concentration if you will."

Clark repeated a recent warning that restaurants, already operating at 25% or 50% capacity, will struggle during the winter months and not be able to pay their distributors. By the beginning to the middle of next year, he said, wholesalers will be hurting even worse.

"So we're going to have to wait to see what happens there, but I think that the seafood distribution chain has got to get some relief from whichever administration comes forward," he said.

'[A] lot of appetite' for conservation among NGOs

Another big change that could be seen should this year’s US election result in a blue wave could be conservation groups’ agendas making their way more into federal wild harvesting policies, suggested Leigh Habegger, executive director of Seafood Harvesters of America, and Bob Vanasse, the founder of Stoveboat Communications, on Thursday.

Habegger, whose trade association represents 18 commercial fishing groups and thousands of harvesters, in particular, pointed to the "Ocean-Based Climate Solutions Act", HR 8632, introduced Tuesday by US representative Raul Grijalva, chairman of the House’s Natural Resources Committee, as reported by Undercurrent. Among numerous changes, the bill would require creating a task force that would have one year to develop a plan and schedule to place 30% of federal waters under conservation by 2030 – a provision known casually as the “30 by 30 plan.”

Habegger said commercial harvesters are frustrated by the measure, noting that they’ve worked hard to achieve various types of conservation protections that seem to be ignored by the legislative effort.

Though the bill has arrived too late to get attention from the final months of the 116th Congress, Habegger said her group fully expects it to be re-introduced in the House during the 117th and be marked up and voted on. If Republicans retain the Senate, there’s little chance the legislation gets very far in the near future. However, a change in the upper chamber could give it a lot of new life, she said.

“I think there’s a lot of appetite amongst the environmental community…and there has been a genuine willingness to work with the industry on trying to improve the language and the process, so I guess it remains to be seen how this actually plays out in the coming months,” she said, adding:

“I think the introduction of this bill was largely sort of a messaging bill and sort of a blueprint for what an ocean package might look like in the next Congress. But, I think there is recognition amongst many of the co-sponsors, if not all of them, that this bill is going to change before it’s reintroduced in the next Congress.”

Vanasse agreed, saying, “It really is putting a stake in the ground to create a laundry list of things that, certain groups and members of Congress hope might be addressed in the Biden Harris administration.”

Could aquaculture get stuck in the past?

That was the concern expressed by Sebastian Belle, executive director of the Maine Aquaculture Association and vice president of the National Aquaculture Association.

The Trump administration, in the past year, has moved more to promote the development of aquaculture in the US, issuing an executive order on May 7 that both called for revising the National Aquaculture Development Plan to further strengthen domestic aquaculture production and also make it easier to create new aquaculture facilities offshore, as reported by Undercurrent.

The initiative has been tied to an effort to swing the balance of US consumption to focus more on domestically sourced seafood and less on imports.

Whether the Trump administration or a Biden administration follows through with the effort remains to be seen, Belle said Thursday. He said he's more concerned that a blue wave could result in some NGOs that don't believe in aquaculture might drag the industry back into the past.

“I think the most disappointing thing for us in the private sector is that many folks in the environmental community are still stuck in the science that's 25, 30 years old, and they don't recognize the tremendous evolution and innovation that has occurred in the private sector with respect to environmental impact and reducing that," he said. "And so, to be very frank about it, if we see a Democratic sweep, I think, from the aquaculture sector, we are concerned that we will be dragged back into debating all that stuff all over again."

Look for more details on what trade expert Marc Busch, professor of international business diplomacy, Georgetown University, said in a future article. And enjoy the whole 90-minute webinar here:

Contact the author jason.huffman@undercurrentnews.com